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Dulwich Hill vs Dunbar Rovers — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Dulwich Hill
Dulwich Hill
FT
4 – 1
Dunbar Rovers
Dunbar Rovers
4/6/2024New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 9Arlington Oval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Dulwich Hill49%
×Draw23%
Dunbar Rovers29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dulwich Hill
1.86
Dunbar Rovers
1.38

Dulwich Hill creates 35% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 30 away

creates per match

Dulwich Hill
1.35
Dunbar Rovers
0.93

allows per match

Dulwich Hill
1.82
Dunbar Rovers
2.37

finishing

Dulwich Hill+0.00on par
Dunbar Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dulwich Hill ↓

Dunbar Rovers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Dulwich Hill or draw
71%
Dulwich Hill or Dunbar Rovers
77%
Draw or Dunbar Rovers
51%

Winning margin

Dulwich Hill wins by 2+
27%
Dunbar Rovers wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Dulwich Hill 1+ goals
84%
Dulwich Hill 2+ goals
55%
Dulwich Hill 3+ goals
28%
Dunbar Rovers 1+ goals
75%
Dunbar Rovers 2+ goals
40%
Dunbar Rovers 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Dulwich Hill (draw refunded)
63%
Dunbar Rovers (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dulwich Hill at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.82 · 57 matches

Dunbar Rovers away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.37 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dulwich Hill attack 1.35 + Dunbar Rovers defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.86

Dunbar Rovers attack 0.93 + Dulwich Hill defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Dulwich Hill scores more
49%
level
23%
Dunbar Rovers scores more
29%

Dulwich Hill at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Dulwich Hill will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New South Wales NPL 2: Dulwich Hill 4–1 Dunbar Rovers

Dulwich Hill beat Dunbar Rovers 4-1 in New South Wales NPL 2 on April 6, 2024.

The match was played at Arlington Oval in Dulwich Hill.