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Dulwich Hill vs Bulls Academy — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Dulwich Hill
Dulwich Hill
FT
1 – 3
Bulls Academy
Bulls Academy
2/24/2024New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 2Arlington Oval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Dulwich Hill31%
×Draw23%
Bulls Academy46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dulwich Hill
1.42
Bulls Academy
1.76

Bulls Academy creates 24% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 43 away

creates per match

Dulwich Hill
1.35
Bulls Academy
1.70

allows per match

Dulwich Hill
1.82
Bulls Academy
1.49

finishing

Dulwich Hill+0.00on par
Bulls Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dulwich Hill ↓

Bulls Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Dulwich Hill or draw
54%
Dulwich Hill or Bulls Academy
77%
Draw or Bulls Academy
69%

Winning margin

Dulwich Hill wins by 2+
14%
Bulls Academy wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Dulwich Hill 1+ goals
76%
Dulwich Hill 2+ goals
41%
Dulwich Hill 3+ goals
17%
Bulls Academy 1+ goals
83%
Bulls Academy 2+ goals
52%
Bulls Academy 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Dulwich Hill (draw refunded)
41%
Bulls Academy (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dulwich Hill at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.82 · 57 matches

Bulls Academy away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.49 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dulwich Hill attack 1.35 + Bulls Academy defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.42

Bulls Academy attack 1.70 + Dulwich Hill defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dulwich Hill scores more
31%
level
23%
Bulls Academy scores more
46%

Bulls Academy at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Bulls Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dulwich Hill vs Bulls Academy

Bulls Academy beat Dulwich Hill 3-1 in New South Wales NPL 2 on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Arlington Oval in Dulwich Hill.