Bulls Academy 2–2 Dulwich Hill: Result & Stats

Bulls Academy

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Dulwich Hill

4/21/2025

New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 11Sydney United Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Bulls Academy56%

×Draw20%

Dulwich Hill23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bulls AcademyExpected goals in this matchDulwich Hill

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

1.38

Bulls Academy

2.23

Dulwich Hill

1.38

Bulls Academy creates 62% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 57 away

2.23

creates per match

1.30

1.45

allows per match

2.23

creates per match

Bulls Academy

2.23

Dulwich Hill

1.30

allows per match

Bulls Academy

1.45

Dulwich Hill

2.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bulls Academy+0.00on par

Dulwich Hill+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bulls Academy ↓

Dulwich Hill →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Bulls Academy or draw

77%

Bulls Academy or Dulwich Hill

80%

Draw or Dulwich Hill

44%

Winning margin

Bulls Academy wins by 2+

35%

Dulwich Hill wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Bulls Academy 1+ goals

89%

Bulls Academy 2+ goals

65%

Bulls Academy 3+ goals

38%

Dulwich Hill 1+ goals

75%

Dulwich Hill 2+ goals

40%

Dulwich Hill 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Bulls Academy (draw refunded)

71%

Dulwich Hill (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bulls Academy at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.45 · 40 matches

Dulwich Hill away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.23 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bulls Academy attack 2.23 + Dulwich Hill defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.23

Dulwich Hill attack 1.30 + Bulls Academy defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Bulls Academy scores more

56%

level

20%

Dulwich Hill scores more

23%

Bulls Academy at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Bulls Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bulls Academy vs Dulwich Hill

Bulls Academy and Dulwich Hill drew 2-2 in New South Wales NPL 2 on April 21, 2025.

The match was played at Sydney United Sports Center in Sydney.

Bulls Academy vs Dulwich Hill — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Bulls Academy vs Dulwich Hill