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Dukla Praha W vs Horní Heršpice W — 1. Liga Women 2020

Dukla Praha W
Dukla Praha W
FT
3 – 2
Horní Heršpice W
Horní Heršpice W
4/2/20211. Liga Women1. Liga Women · Round 13UMT Juliska

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Dukla Praha W44%
×Draw20%
Horní Heršpice W36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dukla Praha W
2.19
Horní Heršpice W
1.96

Dukla Praha W creates 12% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 60 away

creates per match

Dukla Praha W
1.40
Horní Heršpice W
0.82

allows per match

Dukla Praha W
3.10
Horní Heršpice W
2.97

finishing

Dukla Praha W+0.00on par
Horní Heršpice W+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dukla Praha W ↓

Horní Heršpice W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Dukla Praha W or draw
64%
Dukla Praha W or Horní Heršpice W
80%
Draw or Horní Heršpice W
56%

Winning margin

Dukla Praha W wins by 2+
25%
Horní Heršpice W wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Dukla Praha W 1+ goals
89%
Dukla Praha W 2+ goals
64%
Dukla Praha W 3+ goals
37%
Horní Heršpice W 1+ goals
86%
Horní Heršpice W 2+ goals
58%
Horní Heršpice W 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Dukla Praha W (draw refunded)
55%
Horní Heršpice W (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dukla Praha W at home — creates 1.40, concedes 3.10 · 30 matches

Horní Heršpice W away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.97 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dukla Praha W attack 1.40 + Horní Heršpice W defence 2.97 → ÷2 → 2.19

Horní Heršpice W attack 0.82 + Dukla Praha W defence 3.10 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Dukla Praha W scores more
44%
level
20%
Horní Heršpice W scores more
36%

Dukla Praha W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Dukla Praha W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Women: Dukla Praha W 3–2 Horní Heršpice W

Dukla Praha W beat Horní Heršpice W 3-2 in 1. Liga Women on April 2, 2021.

The match was played at UMT Juliska in Praha.