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Dukla Praha vs Táborsko — FNL 2019

Dukla Praha
Dukla Praha
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Táborsko
Táborsko
11/5/2023FNLFNL · Round 15Stadion Juliska

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Dukla Praha49%
×Draw25%
Táborsko27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dukla Praha
1.64
Táborsko
1.14

Dukla Praha creates 44% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 88 away

creates per match

Dukla Praha
1.93
Táborsko
1.15

allows per match

Dukla Praha
1.12
Táborsko
1.34

finishing

Dukla Praha+0.00on par
Táborsko+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dukla Praha ↓

Táborsko →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Dukla Praha or draw
73%
Dukla Praha or Táborsko
75%
Draw or Táborsko
51%

Winning margin

Dukla Praha wins by 2+
26%
Táborsko wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Dukla Praha 1+ goals
81%
Dukla Praha 2+ goals
49%
Dukla Praha 3+ goals
23%
Táborsko 1+ goals
68%
Táborsko 2+ goals
32%
Táborsko 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Dukla Praha (draw refunded)
65%
Táborsko (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dukla Praha at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.12 · 73 matches

Táborsko away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.34 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dukla Praha attack 1.93 + Táborsko defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.64

Táborsko attack 1.15 + Dukla Praha defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Dukla Praha scores more
49%
level
25%
Táborsko scores more
27%

Dukla Praha at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Dukla Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FNL: Dukla Praha 0–0 Táborsko

Dukla Praha and Táborsko drew 0-0 in FNL on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Juliska in Praha.