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Dukla Praha vs Slavia Praha — Czech Liga 2019

Dukla Praha
Dukla Praha
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Slavia Praha
Slavia Praha
2/27/2026Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 24Stadion Juliska

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Dukla Praha24%
×Draw26%
Slavia Praha50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dukla Praha
0.95
Slavia Praha
1.52

Slavia Praha creates 60% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 15 away

creates per match

Dukla Praha
0.88
Slavia Praha
1.67

allows per match

Dukla Praha
1.37
Slavia Praha
1.02

finishing

Dukla Praha+0.12scores more
Slavia Praha+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dukla Praha ↓

Slavia Praha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Dukla Praha or draw
50%
Dukla Praha or Slavia Praha
74%
Draw or Slavia Praha
76%

Winning margin

Dukla Praha wins by 2+
8%
Slavia Praha wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Dukla Praha 1+ goals
61%
Dukla Praha 2+ goals
25%
Dukla Praha 3+ goals
7%
Slavia Praha 1+ goals
78%
Slavia Praha 2+ goals
45%
Slavia Praha 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Dukla Praha (draw refunded)
32%
Slavia Praha (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dukla Praha at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.37 · 7 matches

Slavia Praha away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.02 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dukla Praha attack 0.88 + Slavia Praha defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.95

Slavia Praha attack 1.67 + Dukla Praha defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Dukla Praha scores more
24%
level
26%
Slavia Praha scores more
50%

Slavia Praha at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Slavia Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Czech Liga: Dukla Praha 0–2 Slavia Praha

Slavia Praha beat Dukla Praha 2-0 in Czech Liga on February 27, 2026.

The match was played at Stadion Juliska in Prague.