Dukla Praha U19 3–3 Zlín U19: Result & Stats

Dukla Praha U19

FT

3 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Zlín U19

3/15/2024

1. Liga U19 · Round 18Sportareal Satalice UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Dukla Praha U1945%

×Draw22%

Zlín U1933%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dukla Praha U19Expected goals in this matchZlín U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.63

Dukla Praha U19

1.92

Zlín U19

1.63

Dukla Praha U19 creates 18% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 79 away

1.95

creates per match

1.62

1.63

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Dukla Praha U19

1.95

Zlín U19

1.62

allows per match

Dukla Praha U19

1.63

Zlín U19

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dukla Praha U19+0.00on par

Zlín U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dukla Praha U19 ↓

Zlín U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Dukla Praha U19 or draw

67%

Dukla Praha U19 or Zlín U19

78%

Draw or Zlín U19

55%

Winning margin

Dukla Praha U19 wins by 2+

25%

Zlín U19 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Dukla Praha U19 1+ goals

85%

Dukla Praha U19 2+ goals

57%

Dukla Praha U19 3+ goals

30%

Zlín U19 1+ goals

80%

Zlín U19 2+ goals

48%

Zlín U19 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Dukla Praha U19 (draw refunded)

57%

Zlín U19 (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dukla Praha U19 at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.63 · 60 matches

Zlín U19 away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.89 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dukla Praha U19 attack 1.95 + Zlín U19 defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.92

Zlín U19 attack 1.62 + Dukla Praha U19 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Dukla Praha U19 scores more

45%

level

22%

Zlín U19 scores more

33%

Dukla Praha U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Dukla Praha U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff