Dukla Praha U19 3–2 Jablonec U19: Result & Stats

Dukla Praha U19

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Jablonec U19

5/10/2025

1. Liga U19 · Round 25Sportareál Satalice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dukla Praha U1953%

×Draw21%

Jablonec U1926%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dukla Praha U19Expected goals in this matchJablonec U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.11

1.42

Dukla Praha U19

2.11

Jablonec U19

1.42

Dukla Praha U19 creates 49% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 15 away

1.95

creates per match

1.20

1.63

allows per match

2.27

creates per match

Dukla Praha U19

1.95

Jablonec U19

1.20

allows per match

Dukla Praha U19

1.63

Jablonec U19

2.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dukla Praha U19+0.00on par

Jablonec U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dukla Praha U19 ↓

Jablonec U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Dukla Praha U19 or draw

74%

Dukla Praha U19 or Jablonec U19

79%

Draw or Jablonec U19

47%

Winning margin

Dukla Praha U19 wins by 2+

32%

Jablonec U19 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Dukla Praha U19 1+ goals

88%

Dukla Praha U19 2+ goals

62%

Dukla Praha U19 3+ goals

35%

Jablonec U19 1+ goals

76%

Jablonec U19 2+ goals

41%

Jablonec U19 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Dukla Praha U19 (draw refunded)

67%

Jablonec U19 (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dukla Praha U19 at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.63 · 60 matches

Jablonec U19 away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dukla Praha U19 attack 1.95 + Jablonec U19 defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.11

Jablonec U19 attack 1.20 + Dukla Praha U19 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Dukla Praha U19 scores more

53%

level

21%

Jablonec U19 scores more

26%

Dukla Praha U19 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Dukla Praha U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff