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Dukla Praha U19 vs Baník Ostrava U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Dukla Praha U19
Dukla Praha U19
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Baník Ostrava U19
Baník Ostrava U19
V. Babka 76'
M. Selicha 74'
F. Skalnik 35', 20'
5/18/20241. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 27Stadion Libčice nad Vltavou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Dukla Praha U1940%
×Draw22%
Baník Ostrava U1938%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dukla Praha U19
1.77
Baník Ostrava U19
1.72

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 77 away

creates per match

Dukla Praha U19
1.95
Baník Ostrava U19
1.81

allows per match

Dukla Praha U19
1.63
Baník Ostrava U19
1.60

finishing

Dukla Praha U19+0.00on par
Baník Ostrava U19+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dukla Praha U19 ↓

Baník Ostrava U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Dukla Praha U19 or draw
62%
Dukla Praha U19 or Baník Ostrava U19
78%
Draw or Baník Ostrava U19
60%

Winning margin

Dukla Praha U19 wins by 2+
21%
Baník Ostrava U19 wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Dukla Praha U19 1+ goals
83%
Dukla Praha U19 2+ goals
53%
Dukla Praha U19 3+ goals
26%
Baník Ostrava U19 1+ goals
82%
Baník Ostrava U19 2+ goals
51%
Baník Ostrava U19 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Dukla Praha U19 (draw refunded)
51%
Baník Ostrava U19 (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dukla Praha U19 at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.63 · 60 matches

Baník Ostrava U19 away — creates 1.81, concedes 1.60 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dukla Praha U19 attack 1.95 + Baník Ostrava U19 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.77

Baník Ostrava U19 attack 1.81 + Dukla Praha U19 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dukla Praha U19 scores more
40%
level
22%
Baník Ostrava U19 scores more
38%

Dukla Praha U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dukla Praha U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
F. Skalnik
35'
F. Skalnik
74'
M. Selicha
76'
V. Babka

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dukla Praha U19 vs Baník Ostrava U19

Dukla Praha U19 beat Baník Ostrava U19 4-0 in 1. Liga U19 on May 18, 2024.

Goals: F. Skalnik (20', 35'), M. Selicha (74'), V. Babka (76').

The match was played at Stadion Libčice nad Vltavou in Libčice nad Vltavou.