Dukla Praha II 2–2 České Budějovice II

Dukla Praha II

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

České Budějovice II

4/26/2026

3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 25Stadion FK Zbuzany

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Dukla Praha II43%

×Draw22%

České Budějovice II35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dukla Praha IIExpected goals in this matchČeské Budějovice II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.67

Dukla Praha II

1.85

České Budějovice II

1.67

Dukla Praha II creates 11% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 61 away

1.62

creates per match

1.75

1.59

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Dukla Praha II

1.62

České Budějovice II

1.75

allows per match

Dukla Praha II

1.59

České Budějovice II

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dukla Praha II+0.00on par

České Budějovice II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dukla Praha II ↓

České Budějovice II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Dukla Praha II or draw

65%

Dukla Praha II or České Budějovice II

78%

Draw or České Budějovice II

57%

Winning margin

Dukla Praha II wins by 2+

23%

České Budějovice II wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Dukla Praha II 1+ goals

84%

Dukla Praha II 2+ goals

55%

Dukla Praha II 3+ goals

28%

České Budějovice II 1+ goals

81%

České Budějovice II 2+ goals

50%

České Budějovice II 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Dukla Praha II (draw refunded)

55%

České Budějovice II (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dukla Praha II at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.59 · 61 matches

České Budějovice II away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.08 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dukla Praha II attack 1.62 + České Budějovice II defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.85

České Budějovice II attack 1.75 + Dukla Praha II defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Dukla Praha II scores more

43%

level

22%

České Budějovice II scores more

35%

Dukla Praha II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Dukla Praha II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff