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Dukla Banská Bystrica W vs Tatran Prešov W — I Liga - Women 2020

Dukla Banská Bystrica W
Dukla Banská Bystrica W
FT
1 – 0
Tatran Prešov W
Tatran Prešov W
9/30/2023I Liga - WomenI Liga - Women · Round 7Futbalové ihrisko TJ Horná Mičiná

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Dukla Banská Bystrica W33%
×Draw20%
Tatran Prešov W46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dukla Banská Bystrica W
1.90
Tatran Prešov W
2.25

Tatran Prešov W creates 18% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 39 away

creates per match

Dukla Banská Bystrica W
1.58
Tatran Prešov W
1.79

allows per match

Dukla Banská Bystrica W
2.71
Tatran Prešov W
2.21

finishing

Dukla Banská Bystrica W+0.00on par
Tatran Prešov W+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dukla Banská Bystrica W ↓

Tatran Prešov W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Dukla Banská Bystrica W or draw
54%
Dukla Banská Bystrica W or Tatran Prešov W
80%
Draw or Tatran Prešov W
67%

Winning margin

Dukla Banská Bystrica W wins by 2+
17%
Tatran Prešov W wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Dukla Banská Bystrica W 1+ goals
85%
Dukla Banská Bystrica W 2+ goals
56%
Dukla Banská Bystrica W 3+ goals
29%
Tatran Prešov W 1+ goals
89%
Tatran Prešov W 2+ goals
65%
Tatran Prešov W 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Dukla Banská Bystrica W (draw refunded)
42%
Tatran Prešov W (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dukla Banská Bystrica W at home — creates 1.58, concedes 2.71 · 55 matches

Tatran Prešov W away — creates 1.79, concedes 2.21 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dukla Banská Bystrica W attack 1.58 + Tatran Prešov W defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.90

Tatran Prešov W attack 1.79 + Dukla Banská Bystrica W defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dukla Banská Bystrica W scores more
33%
level
20%
Tatran Prešov W scores more
46%

Tatran Prešov W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Tatran Prešov W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dukla Banská Bystrica W vs Tatran Prešov W

Dukla Banská Bystrica W beat Tatran Prešov W 1-0 in I Liga - Women on September 30, 2023.

The match was played at Futbalové ihrisko TJ Horná Mičiná in Horná Mičiná.