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Dukla Banská Bystrica W vs Petržalka W — I Liga - Women 2020

Dukla Banská Bystrica W
Dukla Banská Bystrica W
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Petržalka W
Petržalka W
11/4/2023I Liga - WomenI Liga - Women · Round 11Tréningové futbalové ihrisko Radvaň

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Dukla Banská Bystrica W41%
×Draw20%
Petržalka W38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dukla Banská Bystrica W
2.12
Petržalka W
2.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 69 away

creates per match

Dukla Banská Bystrica W
1.58
Petržalka W
1.38

allows per match

Dukla Banská Bystrica W
2.71
Petržalka W
2.65

finishing

Dukla Banská Bystrica W+0.00on par
Petržalka W+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dukla Banská Bystrica W ↓

Petržalka W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Dukla Banská Bystrica W or draw
62%
Dukla Banská Bystrica W or Petržalka W
80%
Draw or Petržalka W
59%

Winning margin

Dukla Banská Bystrica W wins by 2+
23%
Petržalka W wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Dukla Banská Bystrica W 1+ goals
88%
Dukla Banská Bystrica W 2+ goals
62%
Dukla Banská Bystrica W 3+ goals
35%
Petržalka W 1+ goals
87%
Petržalka W 2+ goals
60%
Petržalka W 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Dukla Banská Bystrica W (draw refunded)
52%
Petržalka W (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dukla Banská Bystrica W at home — creates 1.58, concedes 2.71 · 55 matches

Petržalka W away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.65 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dukla Banská Bystrica W attack 1.58 + Petržalka W defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.12

Petržalka W attack 1.38 + Dukla Banská Bystrica W defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Dukla Banská Bystrica W scores more
41%
level
20%
Petržalka W scores more
38%

Dukla Banská Bystrica W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Dukla Banská Bystrica W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dukla Banská Bystrica W vs Petržalka W

Dukla Banská Bystrica W beat Petržalka W 1-0 in I Liga - Women on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Tréningové futbalové ihrisko Radvaň in Banská Bystrica.