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Dukla Banská Bystrica vs Zlaté Moravce — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Dukla Banská Bystrica
Dukla Banská Bystrica
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Zlaté Moravce
Zlaté Moravce
M. Hlinka 59'
K. Mondek 74'
7/6/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Štadión SNP Štiavničky

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Dukla Banská Bystrica40%
×Draw22%
Zlaté Moravce37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dukla Banská Bystrica
1.77
Zlaté Moravce
1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 13 away

creates per match

Dukla Banská Bystrica
1.86
Zlaté Moravce
2.23

allows per match

Dukla Banská Bystrica
1.14
Zlaté Moravce
1.69

finishing

Dukla Banská Bystrica+0.00on par
Zlaté Moravce+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dukla Banská Bystrica ↓

Zlaté Moravce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Dukla Banská Bystrica or draw
63%
Dukla Banská Bystrica or Zlaté Moravce
78%
Draw or Zlaté Moravce
60%

Winning margin

Dukla Banská Bystrica wins by 2+
21%
Zlaté Moravce wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Dukla Banská Bystrica 1+ goals
83%
Dukla Banská Bystrica 2+ goals
53%
Dukla Banská Bystrica 3+ goals
26%
Zlaté Moravce 1+ goals
82%
Zlaté Moravce 2+ goals
50%
Zlaté Moravce 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Dukla Banská Bystrica (draw refunded)
52%
Zlaté Moravce (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dukla Banská Bystrica at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.14 · 14 matches

Zlaté Moravce away — creates 2.23, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dukla Banská Bystrica attack 1.86 + Zlaté Moravce defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.77

Zlaté Moravce attack 2.23 + Dukla Banská Bystrica defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dukla Banská Bystrica scores more
40%
level
22%
Zlaté Moravce scores more
37%

Dukla Banská Bystrica at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dukla Banská Bystrica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

59'
M. Hlinka
74'
K. Mondek
Dukla
Zlaté
M. Auxt
Manager: M. Auxt
D. Uhrin
Manager: D. Uhrin

Friendlies Clubs: Dukla Banská Bystrica 1–1 Zlaté Moravce

Dukla Banská Bystrica and Zlaté Moravce drew 1-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 6, 2024.

Goals: M. Hlinka (59'), K. Mondek (74').

The match was played at Štadión SNP Štiavničky in Banská Bystrica.