Dukla Banská Bystrica 8–0 Spišská Nová Ves

Dukla Banská Bystrica

8 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Spišská Nová Ves

1/17/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Futbalový Štadión Radvaň

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Dukla Banská Bystrica73%

×Draw14%

Spišská Nová Ves12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dukla Banská BystricaExpected goals in this matchSpišská Nová Ves

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.10

1.23

Dukla Banská Bystrica

3.10

Spišská Nová Ves

1.23

Dukla Banská Bystrica creates 152% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 3 away

1.86

creates per match

1.33

1.14

allows per match

4.33

creates per match

Dukla Banská Bystrica

1.86

Spišská Nová Ves

1.33

allows per match

Dukla Banská Bystrica

1.14

Spišská Nová Ves

4.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dukla Banská Bystrica+0.00on par

Spišská Nová Ves+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dukla Banská Bystrica ↓

Spišská Nová Ves →

0–01%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–04%

1–15%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4–05%

4–16%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Dukla Banská Bystrica or draw

88%

Dukla Banská Bystrica or Spišská Nová Ves

86%

Draw or Spišská Nová Ves

27%

Winning margin

Dukla Banská Bystrica wins by 2+

54%

Spišská Nová Ves wins by 2+

Team goals

Dukla Banská Bystrica 1+ goals

95%

Dukla Banská Bystrica 2+ goals

81%

Dukla Banská Bystrica 3+ goals

58%

Spišská Nová Ves 1+ goals

71%

Spišská Nová Ves 2+ goals

35%

Spišská Nová Ves 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Dukla Banská Bystrica (draw refunded)

86%

Spišská Nová Ves (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Dukla Banská Bystrica at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.14 · 14 matches

Spišská Nová Ves away — creates 1.33, concedes 4.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Dukla Banská Bystrica attack 1.86 + Spišská Nová Ves defence 4.33 → ÷2 → 3.10

Spišská Nová Ves attack 1.33 + Dukla Banská Bystrica defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 73%?"

Dukla Banská Bystrica scores more

73%

level

14%

Spišská Nová Ves scores more

12%

Dukla Banská Bystrica at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Dukla Banská Bystrica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff