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Dukla Banská Bystrica vs Slavoj Trebišov — 2. liga 2019

Dukla Banská Bystrica
Dukla Banská Bystrica
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Slavoj Trebišov
Slavoj Trebišov
9/18/20212. liga2. liga · Round 9Štadión MFK Lokomotiva Zvolen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Dukla Banská Bystrica67%
×Draw18%
Slavoj Trebišov14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dukla Banská Bystrica
2.33
Slavoj Trebišov
0.98

Dukla Banská Bystrica creates 138% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 69 away

creates per match

Dukla Banská Bystrica
2.65
Slavoj Trebišov
0.97

allows per match

Dukla Banská Bystrica
1.00
Slavoj Trebišov
2.01

finishing

Dukla Banská Bystrica+0.00on par
Slavoj Trebišov+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dukla Banská Bystrica ↓

Slavoj Trebišov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Dukla Banská Bystrica or draw
86%
Dukla Banská Bystrica or Slavoj Trebišov
82%
Draw or Slavoj Trebišov
33%

Winning margin

Dukla Banská Bystrica wins by 2+
44%
Slavoj Trebišov wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Dukla Banská Bystrica 1+ goals
90%
Dukla Banská Bystrica 2+ goals
67%
Dukla Banská Bystrica 3+ goals
41%
Slavoj Trebišov 1+ goals
62%
Slavoj Trebišov 2+ goals
26%
Slavoj Trebišov 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Dukla Banská Bystrica (draw refunded)
82%
Slavoj Trebišov (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dukla Banská Bystrica at home — creates 2.65, concedes 1.00 · 55 matches

Slavoj Trebišov away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.01 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dukla Banská Bystrica attack 2.65 + Slavoj Trebišov defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 2.33

Slavoj Trebišov attack 0.97 + Dukla Banská Bystrica defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Dukla Banská Bystrica scores more
67%
level
18%
Slavoj Trebišov scores more
14%

Dukla Banská Bystrica at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Dukla Banská Bystrica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dukla Banská Bystrica vs Slavoj Trebišov

Dukla Banská Bystrica beat Slavoj Trebišov 3-0 in 2. liga on September 18, 2021.

The match was played at Štadión MFK Lokomotiva Zvolen in Zvolen.