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Dukagjini vs Fushë Kosova — Superliga 2019

Dukagjini
Dukagjini
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Fushë Kosova
Fushë Kosova
9/23/2023SuperligaSuperliga · Round 6Stadiumi 18 Qershori

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Dukagjini61%
×Draw24%
Fushë Kosova15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dukagjini
1.63
Fushë Kosova
0.67

Dukagjini creates 143% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 18 away

creates per match

Dukagjini
1.09
Fushë Kosova
0.33

allows per match

Dukagjini
1.00
Fushë Kosova
2.17

finishing

Dukagjini+0.00on par
Fushë Kosova+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dukagjini ↓

Fushë Kosova →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Dukagjini or draw
85%
Dukagjini or Fushë Kosova
76%
Draw or Fushë Kosova
39%

Winning margin

Dukagjini wins by 2+
33%
Fushë Kosova wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Dukagjini 1+ goals
80%
Dukagjini 2+ goals
48%
Dukagjini 3+ goals
22%
Fushë Kosova 1+ goals
49%
Fushë Kosova 2+ goals
15%
Fushë Kosova 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Dukagjini (draw refunded)
80%
Fushë Kosova (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dukagjini at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.00 · 106 matches

Fushë Kosova away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dukagjini attack 1.09 + Fushë Kosova defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.63

Fushë Kosova attack 0.33 + Dukagjini defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Dukagjini scores more
61%
level
24%
Fushë Kosova scores more
15%

Dukagjini at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Dukagjini will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dukagjini vs Fushë Kosova

Dukagjini beat Fushë Kosova 1-0 in Superliga on September 23, 2023.

The match was played at Stadiumi 18 Qershori in Klinë.