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Dukagjini vs Feronikeli — Cup 2019

Dukagjini
Dukagjiniadvanced
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Feronikeli
Feronikeli
3/4/2026CupCup · Quarter-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Dukagjini43%
×Draw26%
Feronikeli31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dukagjini
1.43
Feronikeli
1.19

Dukagjini creates 20% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

creates per match

Dukagjini
2.30
Feronikeli
1.57

allows per match

Dukagjini
0.80
Feronikeli
0.57

finishing

Dukagjini+0.00on par
Feronikeli+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dukagjini ↓

Feronikeli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Dukagjini or draw
69%
Dukagjini or Feronikeli
74%
Draw or Feronikeli
57%

Winning margin

Dukagjini wins by 2+
20%
Feronikeli wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Dukagjini 1+ goals
76%
Dukagjini 2+ goals
42%
Dukagjini 3+ goals
17%
Feronikeli 1+ goals
70%
Feronikeli 2+ goals
33%
Feronikeli 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Dukagjini (draw refunded)
58%
Feronikeli (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dukagjini at home — creates 2.30, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

Feronikeli away — creates 1.57, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dukagjini attack 2.30 + Feronikeli defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 1.43

Feronikeli attack 1.57 + Dukagjini defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Dukagjini scores more
43%
level
26%
Feronikeli scores more
31%

Dukagjini at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Dukagjini will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Dukagjini 3–0 Feronikeli

Dukagjini beat Feronikeli 3-0 in Cup on March 4, 2026.