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Duhok vs Karbala — Iraqi League 2020

Duhok
Duhok
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Karbala
Karbala
4/27/2025Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 30Dohuk Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Duhok46%
×Draw29%
Karbala25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Duhok
1.27
Karbala
0.86

Duhok creates 48% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 58 away

creates per match

Duhok
1.12
Karbala
0.81

allows per match

Duhok
0.91
Karbala
1.41

finishing

Duhok+0.00on par
Karbala+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Duhok ↓

Karbala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Duhok or draw
75%
Duhok or Karbala
71%
Draw or Karbala
54%

Winning margin

Duhok wins by 2+
21%
Karbala wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Duhok 1+ goals
72%
Duhok 2+ goals
36%
Duhok 3+ goals
14%
Karbala 1+ goals
58%
Karbala 2+ goals
21%
Karbala 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Duhok (draw refunded)
65%
Karbala (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Duhok at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.91 · 77 matches

Karbala away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.41 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Duhok attack 1.12 + Karbala defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.27

Karbala attack 0.81 + Duhok defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Duhok scores more
46%
level
29%
Karbala scores more
25%

Duhok at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Duhok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Duhok vs Karbala

Duhok beat Karbala 2-1 in Iraqi League on April 27, 2025.

The match was played at Dohuk Stadium in Dohuk.