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Duhok vs Gharraf — Iraqi League 2025

Duhok
Duhok
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Gharraf
Gharraf
P. Gwargis 18' (pen)
M. Konate 44'
4/23/2026Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 30Duhok Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Duhok36%
×Draw30%
Gharraf35%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Duhok
1.08
Gharraf
1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 19 away

creates per match

Duhok
0.96
Gharraf
1.16

allows per match

Duhok
0.96
Gharraf
1.21

finishing

Duhok+0.00on par
Gharraf+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Duhok ↓

Gharraf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Duhok or draw
65%
Duhok or Gharraf
70%
Draw or Gharraf
64%

Winning margin

Duhok wins by 2+
14%
Gharraf wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Duhok 1+ goals
66%
Duhok 2+ goals
29%
Duhok 3+ goals
10%
Gharraf 1+ goals
65%
Gharraf 2+ goals
29%
Gharraf 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Duhok (draw refunded)
51%
Gharraf (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Duhok at home — creates 0.96, concedes 0.96 · 25 matches

Gharraf away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Duhok attack 0.96 + Gharraf defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.08

Gharraf attack 1.16 + Duhok defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Duhok scores more
36%
level
30%
Gharraf scores more
35%

Duhok at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Duhok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
P. GwargisPenalty
44'
M. Konate

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Duhok vs Gharraf

Duhok and Gharraf drew 1-1 in Iraqi League on April 23, 2026.

Goals: P. Gwargis (18' pen), M. Konate (44').

The match was played at Duhok Stadium in Duhok.