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Duhok vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya — Iraqi League 2025

Duhok
Duhok
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
Pashang Abdulla 67'
1/14/2025Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 14Dohuk Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Duhok36%
×Draw30%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Duhok
1.07
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
1.01

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 41 home / 41 away

creates per match

Duhok
1.12
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
1.12

allows per match

Duhok
0.90
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
1.02

finishing

Duhok+0.00on par
Al Quwa Al Jawiya+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Duhok ↓

Al Quwa Al Jawiya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Duhok or draw
67%
Duhok or Al Quwa Al Jawiya
70%
Draw or Al Quwa Al Jawiya
64%

Winning margin

Duhok wins by 2+
14%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Duhok 1+ goals
66%
Duhok 2+ goals
29%
Duhok 3+ goals
9%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1+ goals
64%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya 2+ goals
27%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Duhok (draw refunded)
52%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Duhok at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.90 · 41 matches

Al Quwa Al Jawiya away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.02 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Duhok attack 1.12 + Al Quwa Al Jawiya defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.07

Al Quwa Al Jawiya attack 1.12 + Duhok defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Duhok scores more
36%
level
30%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya scores more
33%

Duhok at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Duhok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

67'
Pashang Abdulla
90+1'
K. Darwiche

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Duhok 1–0 Al Quwa Al Jawiya

Duhok beat Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1-0 in Iraqi League on January 14, 2025.

Goals: Pashang Abdulla (67').

The match was played at Dohuk Stadium in Dohuk.