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Duhok vs Al Minaa Basra — Iraqi League 2025

Duhok
Duhok
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Al Minaa Basra
Al Minaa Basra
Ibrahim Ghazi 31' (pen)
Ala'a Abdul Zahra 42' (pen)
6/17/2025Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 27Dohuk Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Duhok45%
×Draw29%
Al Minaa Basra26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Duhok
1.26
Al Minaa Basra
0.89

Duhok creates 42% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 36 away

creates per match

Duhok
1.21
Al Minaa Basra
0.83

allows per match

Duhok
0.94
Al Minaa Basra
1.31

finishing

Duhok+0.00on par
Al Minaa Basra+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Duhok ↓

Al Minaa Basra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Duhok or draw
74%
Duhok or Al Minaa Basra
71%
Draw or Al Minaa Basra
55%

Winning margin

Duhok wins by 2+
20%
Al Minaa Basra wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Duhok 1+ goals
72%
Duhok 2+ goals
36%
Duhok 3+ goals
13%
Al Minaa Basra 1+ goals
59%
Al Minaa Basra 2+ goals
22%
Al Minaa Basra 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Duhok (draw refunded)
63%
Al Minaa Basra (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Duhok at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.94 · 33 matches

Al Minaa Basra away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.31 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Duhok attack 1.21 + Al Minaa Basra defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.26

Al Minaa Basra attack 0.83 + Duhok defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Duhok scores more
45%
level
29%
Al Minaa Basra scores more
26%

Duhok at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Duhok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'
Ibrahim GhaziPenalty
42'
Ala'a Abdul ZahraPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Duhok vs Al Minaa Basra

Duhok and Al Minaa Basra drew 1-1 in Iraqi League on June 17, 2025.

Goals: Ibrahim Ghazi (31' pen), Ala'a Abdul Zahra (42' pen).

The match was played at Dohuk Stadium in Dohuk.