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Duhok vs Al Hudod — Iraqi League 2020

Duhok
Duhok
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Al Hudod
Al Hudod
4/19/2025Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 28Dohuk Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Duhok43%
×Draw29%
Al Hudod28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Duhok
1.23
Al Hudod
0.92

Duhok creates 34% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 78 away

creates per match

Duhok
1.12
Al Hudod
0.92

allows per match

Duhok
0.91
Al Hudod
1.33

finishing

Duhok+0.00on par
Al Hudod+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Duhok ↓

Al Hudod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Duhok or draw
72%
Duhok or Al Hudod
71%
Draw or Al Hudod
57%

Winning margin

Duhok wins by 2+
19%
Al Hudod wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Duhok 1+ goals
71%
Duhok 2+ goals
35%
Duhok 3+ goals
13%
Al Hudod 1+ goals
60%
Al Hudod 2+ goals
23%
Al Hudod 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Duhok (draw refunded)
61%
Al Hudod (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Duhok at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.91 · 77 matches

Al Hudod away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.33 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Duhok attack 1.12 + Al Hudod defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.23

Al Hudod attack 0.92 + Duhok defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Duhok scores more
43%
level
29%
Al Hudod scores more
28%

Duhok at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Duhok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Duhok 1 – 1 Al Hudod

Duhok and Al Hudod drew 1-1 in Iraqi League on April 19, 2025.

The match was played at Dohuk Stadium in Dohuk.