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Dugopolje vs Vukovar — First NL 2018

Dugopolje
Dugopolje
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Vukovar
Vukovar
8/31/2024First NLFirst NL · Round 3Stadion Hrvatski vitezovi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Dugopolje32%
×Draw28%
Vukovar40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dugopolje
1.09
Vukovar
1.27

Vukovar creates 17% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 48 away

creates per match

Dugopolje
1.36
Vukovar
1.48

allows per match

Dugopolje
1.05
Vukovar
0.83

finishing

Dugopolje+0.00on par
Vukovar+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dugopolje ↓

Vukovar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Dugopolje or draw
60%
Dugopolje or Vukovar
72%
Draw or Vukovar
68%

Winning margin

Dugopolje wins by 2+
12%
Vukovar wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Dugopolje 1+ goals
66%
Dugopolje 2+ goals
30%
Dugopolje 3+ goals
10%
Vukovar 1+ goals
72%
Vukovar 2+ goals
36%
Vukovar 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Dugopolje (draw refunded)
44%
Vukovar (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dugopolje at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.05 · 122 matches

Vukovar away — creates 1.48, concedes 0.83 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dugopolje attack 1.36 + Vukovar defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.09

Vukovar attack 1.48 + Dugopolje defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dugopolje scores more
32%
level
28%
Vukovar scores more
40%

Vukovar at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Vukovar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dugopolje vs Vukovar

Vukovar beat Dugopolje 1-0 in First NL on August 31, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Hrvatski vitezovi in Dugopolje.