Dugopolje 2–3 Rudes: Result & Stats | First NL

Dugopolje

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Rudes

3/15/2025

First NL · Round 22Stadion Hrvatski vitezovi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Dugopolje39%

×Draw28%

Rudes33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DugopoljeExpected goals in this matchRudes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.13

Dugopolje

1.25

Rudes

1.13

Dugopolje creates 11% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 91 away

1.36

creates per match

1.21

1.05

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Dugopolje

1.36

Rudes

1.21

allows per match

Dugopolje

1.05

Rudes

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dugopolje+0.00on par

Rudes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dugopolje ↓

Rudes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Dugopolje or draw

67%

Dugopolje or Rudes

72%

Draw or Rudes

61%

Winning margin

Dugopolje wins by 2+

17%

Rudes wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Dugopolje 1+ goals

71%

Dugopolje 2+ goals

36%

Dugopolje 3+ goals

13%

Rudes 1+ goals

68%

Rudes 2+ goals

31%

Rudes 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Dugopolje (draw refunded)

54%

Rudes (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dugopolje at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.05 · 122 matches

Rudes away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.14 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dugopolje attack 1.36 + Rudes defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.25

Rudes attack 1.21 + Dugopolje defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Dugopolje scores more

39%

level

28%

Rudes scores more

33%

Dugopolje at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Dugopolje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff