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Dugopolje vs Inter Zaprešić — First NL 2018

Dugopolje
Dugopolje
CANC
00:00
Inter Zaprešić
Inter Zaprešić
8/13/2022First NLFirst NL · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Dugopolje42%
×Draw27%
Inter Zaprešić31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dugopolje
1.35
Inter Zaprešić
1.12

Dugopolje creates 21% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 32 away

creates per match

Dugopolje
1.36
Inter Zaprešić
1.19

allows per match

Dugopolje
1.05
Inter Zaprešić
1.34

finishing

Dugopolje+0.00on par
Inter Zaprešić+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dugopolje ↓

Inter Zaprešić →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Dugopolje or draw
69%
Dugopolje or Inter Zaprešić
73%
Draw or Inter Zaprešić
58%

Winning margin

Dugopolje wins by 2+
19%
Inter Zaprešić wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Dugopolje 1+ goals
74%
Dugopolje 2+ goals
39%
Dugopolje 3+ goals
15%
Inter Zaprešić 1+ goals
67%
Inter Zaprešić 2+ goals
31%
Inter Zaprešić 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Dugopolje (draw refunded)
58%
Inter Zaprešić (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dugopolje at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.05 · 122 matches

Inter Zaprešić away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.34 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dugopolje attack 1.36 + Inter Zaprešić defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.35

Inter Zaprešić attack 1.19 + Dugopolje defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Dugopolje scores more
42%
level
27%
Inter Zaprešić scores more
31%

Dugopolje at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Dugopolje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dugopolje vs Inter Zaprešić — Match Preview

Dugopolje face Inter Zaprešić on August 13, 2022 in this First NL fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.