Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Dugopolje vs Dubrava Zagreb — First NL 2018

Dugopolje
Dugopolje
FT
4 – 3
HT: 3 – 1
Dubrava Zagreb
Dubrava Zagreb
4/18/2026First NLFirst NL · Round 27Stadion Hrvatski Vitezovi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Dugopolje45%
×Draw27%
Dubrava Zagreb28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dugopolje
1.36
Dubrava Zagreb
1.02

Dugopolje creates 33% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 106 away

creates per match

Dugopolje
1.36
Dubrava Zagreb
0.98

allows per match

Dugopolje
1.05
Dubrava Zagreb
1.36

finishing

Dugopolje+0.00on par
Dubrava Zagreb+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dugopolje ↓

Dubrava Zagreb →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Dugopolje or draw
72%
Dugopolje or Dubrava Zagreb
73%
Draw or Dubrava Zagreb
55%

Winning margin

Dugopolje wins by 2+
21%
Dubrava Zagreb wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Dugopolje 1+ goals
74%
Dugopolje 2+ goals
39%
Dugopolje 3+ goals
16%
Dubrava Zagreb 1+ goals
64%
Dubrava Zagreb 2+ goals
27%
Dubrava Zagreb 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Dugopolje (draw refunded)
61%
Dubrava Zagreb (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dugopolje at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.05 · 122 matches

Dubrava Zagreb away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.36 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dugopolje attack 1.36 + Dubrava Zagreb defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.36

Dubrava Zagreb attack 0.98 + Dugopolje defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Dugopolje scores more
45%
level
27%
Dubrava Zagreb scores more
28%

Dugopolje at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Dugopolje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dugopolje vs Dubrava Zagreb

Dugopolje beat Dubrava Zagreb 4-3 in First NL on April 18, 2026.

The match was played at Stadion Hrvatski Vitezovi in Dugopolje.