Dugopolje 2–1 Dinamo Zagreb II: Result & Stats

Dugopolje

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Dinamo Zagreb II

I. Čerina 90+1', 34'

J. Vasilj 10'

10/23/2021

First NL · Round 10Stadion Hrvatski vitezovi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Dugopolje49%

×Draw26%

Dinamo Zagreb II25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DugopoljeExpected goals in this matchDinamo Zagreb II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

0.99

Dugopolje

1.49

Dinamo Zagreb II

0.99

Dugopolje creates 51% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 54 away

1.36

creates per match

0.93

1.05

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Dugopolje

1.36

Dinamo Zagreb II

0.93

allows per match

Dugopolje

1.05

Dinamo Zagreb II

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dugopolje+0.00on par

Dinamo Zagreb II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dugopolje ↓

Dinamo Zagreb II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Dugopolje or draw

75%

Dugopolje or Dinamo Zagreb II

74%

Draw or Dinamo Zagreb II

51%

Winning margin

Dugopolje wins by 2+

24%

Dinamo Zagreb II wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Dugopolje 1+ goals

77%

Dugopolje 2+ goals

44%

Dugopolje 3+ goals

19%

Dinamo Zagreb II 1+ goals

63%

Dinamo Zagreb II 2+ goals

26%

Dinamo Zagreb II 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Dugopolje (draw refunded)

66%

Dinamo Zagreb II (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dugopolje at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.05 · 122 matches

Dinamo Zagreb II away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.61 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dugopolje attack 1.36 + Dinamo Zagreb II defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.49

Dinamo Zagreb II attack 0.93 + Dugopolje defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Dugopolje scores more

49%

level

26%

Dinamo Zagreb II scores more

25%

Dugopolje at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Dugopolje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

34'

45+1'

45+1'

46'

51'

R. Kurtovic

53'

M. Karabatic

57'

G. Rukavina

58'

D. Javorčić← T. Grozdanovski

64'

D. Balic

66'

M. Basic

70'

I. Chernyak← G. Rukavina

70'

I. Svržnjak← I. Laća

71'

J. Vasilj

75'

A. Kovačević← B. Jenjić

79'

I. Cubelic

81'

M. Vukotić← I. Šaranić

90+4'

I. Chernyak

90'

M. Crnički← I. Brnić

90+1'

I. Čerina

Dugopolje

Dinamo

7

▼

Rozić

11

▼

1

2

5

3

4

10

⚽

Vasilj

6

Duvnjak

8

▼

Šaranić

9

▼

Laća

1

Silić

5

⚽2

Čerina

23

Balić

4

Kurtović

20

▼

Jenjić

15

Ćubelić

21

▼

24

29

18

7

▼

Brnić

Manager: I. Zuljevic

58'▲D. Javorčić←▼T. Grozdanovski

75'▲A. Kovačević←▼B. Jenjić

90'▲M. Crnički←▼I. Brnić

Dugopolje substitutes

8Javorčić27Kovačević26Crnički10Bosančić17Posinković19Kuliš28Mornar31Pervan12Lukač

Manager: I. Cvitanović

46'▲A. Crnac←▼V. Rozić

70'▲I. Chernyak←▼G. Rukavina

70'▲I. Svržnjak←▼I. Laća

81'▲M. Vukotić←▼I. Šaranić

Dinamo Zagreb II substitutes

17Crnac16Chernyak15Svržnjak14Vukotić18Kolundzić19Peña12Mandić13Palić

First NL: Dugopolje 2–1 Dinamo Zagreb II

Dugopolje beat Dinamo Zagreb II 2-1 in First NL on October 23, 2021.

Goals: J. Vasilj (10'), I. Čerina (34', 90+1').

The match was played at Stadion Hrvatski vitezovi in Dugopolje.

Dugopolje vs Dinamo Zagreb II — First NL 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

First NL: Dugopolje 2–1 Dinamo Zagreb II