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Dugo Selo vs NK Osijek II — Second NL 2022

Dugo Selo
Dugo Selo
FT
2 – 0
NK Osijek II
NK Osijek II
3/11/2023Second NLSecond NL · Round 18Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dugo Selo58%
×Draw22%
NK Osijek II20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dugo Selo
1.88
NK Osijek II
1.00

Dugo Selo creates 88% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 15 away

creates per match

Dugo Selo
1.35
NK Osijek II
0.67

allows per match

Dugo Selo
1.33
NK Osijek II
2.40

finishing

Dugo Selo+0.00on par
NK Osijek II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dugo Selo ↓

NK Osijek II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Dugo Selo or draw
80%
Dugo Selo or NK Osijek II
78%
Draw or NK Osijek II
42%

Winning margin

Dugo Selo wins by 2+
34%
NK Osijek II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Dugo Selo 1+ goals
85%
Dugo Selo 2+ goals
56%
Dugo Selo 3+ goals
29%
NK Osijek II 1+ goals
63%
NK Osijek II 2+ goals
26%
NK Osijek II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Dugo Selo (draw refunded)
74%
NK Osijek II (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dugo Selo at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.33 · 60 matches

NK Osijek II away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dugo Selo attack 1.35 + NK Osijek II defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.88

NK Osijek II attack 0.67 + Dugo Selo defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Dugo Selo scores more
58%
level
22%
NK Osijek II scores more
20%

Dugo Selo at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Dugo Selo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second NL: Dugo Selo 2–0 NK Osijek II

Dugo Selo beat NK Osijek II 2-0 in Second NL on March 11, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Dugo Selo.