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Dugo Selo vs Kustosija — Second NL 2022

Dugo Selo
Dugo Selo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Kustosija
Kustosija
4/19/2025Second NLSecond NL · Round 24Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Dugo Selo32%
×Draw25%
Kustosija44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dugo Selo
1.29
Kustosija
1.56

Kustosija creates 21% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 45 away

creates per match

Dugo Selo
1.35
Kustosija
1.78

allows per match

Dugo Selo
1.33
Kustosija
1.24

finishing

Dugo Selo+0.00on par
Kustosija+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dugo Selo ↓

Kustosija →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Dugo Selo or draw
56%
Dugo Selo or Kustosija
75%
Draw or Kustosija
68%

Winning margin

Dugo Selo wins by 2+
14%
Kustosija wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Dugo Selo 1+ goals
72%
Dugo Selo 2+ goals
37%
Dugo Selo 3+ goals
14%
Kustosija 1+ goals
79%
Kustosija 2+ goals
46%
Kustosija 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Dugo Selo (draw refunded)
42%
Kustosija (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dugo Selo at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.33 · 60 matches

Kustosija away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.24 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dugo Selo attack 1.35 + Kustosija defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.29

Kustosija attack 1.78 + Dugo Selo defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Dugo Selo scores more
32%
level
25%
Kustosija scores more
44%

Kustosija at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Kustosija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dugo Selo vs Kustosija

Dugo Selo and Kustosija drew 1-1 in Second NL on April 19, 2025.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Dugo Selo.