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Dugo Selo vs Krk — Second NL 2022

Dugo Selo
Dugo Selo
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Krk
Krk
2/24/2024Second NLSecond NL · Round 16Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Dugo Selo48%
×Draw26%
Krk25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dugo Selo
1.46
Krk
0.98

Dugo Selo creates 49% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 16 away

creates per match

Dugo Selo
1.35
Krk
0.63

allows per match

Dugo Selo
1.33
Krk
1.56

finishing

Dugo Selo+0.00on par
Krk+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dugo Selo ↓

Krk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Dugo Selo or draw
75%
Dugo Selo or Krk
74%
Draw or Krk
52%

Winning margin

Dugo Selo wins by 2+
24%
Krk wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Dugo Selo 1+ goals
77%
Dugo Selo 2+ goals
43%
Dugo Selo 3+ goals
18%
Krk 1+ goals
62%
Krk 2+ goals
26%
Krk 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Dugo Selo (draw refunded)
66%
Krk (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dugo Selo at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.33 · 60 matches

Krk away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dugo Selo attack 1.35 + Krk defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.46

Krk attack 0.63 + Dugo Selo defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Dugo Selo scores more
48%
level
26%
Krk scores more
25%

Dugo Selo at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Dugo Selo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second NL: Dugo Selo 0–0 Krk

Dugo Selo and Krk drew 0-0 in Second NL on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Dugo Selo.