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Dugo Selo vs Jadran Poreč — Second NL 2022

Dugo Selo
Dugo Selo
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Jadran Poreč
Jadran Poreč
F. Vlasic 75'
M. Milicevic 35'
M. Dzalto 19'
D. Bernobic 87'
3/22/2025Second NLSecond NL · Round 20Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Dugo Selo57%
×Draw21%
Jadran Poreč21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dugo Selo
2.04
Jadran Poreč
1.17

Dugo Selo creates 74% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 45 away

creates per match

Dugo Selo
1.35
Jadran Poreč
1.00

allows per match

Dugo Selo
1.33
Jadran Poreč
2.73

finishing

Dugo Selo+0.00on par
Jadran Poreč+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dugo Selo ↓

Jadran Poreč →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Dugo Selo or draw
79%
Dugo Selo or Jadran Poreč
79%
Draw or Jadran Poreč
43%

Winning margin

Dugo Selo wins by 2+
34%
Jadran Poreč wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Dugo Selo 1+ goals
87%
Dugo Selo 2+ goals
60%
Dugo Selo 3+ goals
33%
Jadran Poreč 1+ goals
69%
Jadran Poreč 2+ goals
33%
Jadran Poreč 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Dugo Selo (draw refunded)
73%
Jadran Poreč (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dugo Selo at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.33 · 60 matches

Jadran Poreč away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.73 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dugo Selo attack 1.35 + Jadran Poreč defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 2.04

Jadran Poreč attack 1.00 + Dugo Selo defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Dugo Selo scores more
57%
level
21%
Jadran Poreč scores more
21%

Dugo Selo at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Dugo Selo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
M. Dzalto
35'
M. Milicevic
75'
F. Vlasic
87'
D. Bernobic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dugo Selo vs Jadran Poreč

Dugo Selo beat Jadran Poreč 3-1 in Second NL on March 22, 2025.

Goals: M. Dzalto (19'), M. Milicevic (35'), F. Vlasic (75'), D. Bernobic (87').

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Dugo Selo.