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Dudenhofen vs Mülheim-Kärlich — Oberliga - Relegation Round 2022

Dudenhofen
Dudenhofen
FT
2 – 0
Mülheim-Kärlich
Mülheim-Kärlich
4/29/2023Oberliga - Relegation RoundOberliga - Relegation Round · Rh/Pf/S - Relegation Round - 8FV-Platz Dudenhofen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Dudenhofen68%
×Draw19%
Mülheim-Kärlich12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dudenhofen
2.08
Mülheim-Kärlich
0.75

Dudenhofen creates 177% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Dudenhofen
1.33
Mülheim-Kärlich
1.17

allows per match

Dudenhofen
0.33
Mülheim-Kärlich
2.83

finishing

Dudenhofen+0.00on par
Mülheim-Kärlich+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dudenhofen ↓

Mülheim-Kärlich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Dudenhofen or draw
88%
Dudenhofen or Mülheim-Kärlich
81%
Draw or Mülheim-Kärlich
32%

Winning margin

Dudenhofen wins by 2+
43%
Mülheim-Kärlich wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Dudenhofen 1+ goals
87%
Dudenhofen 2+ goals
61%
Dudenhofen 3+ goals
34%
Mülheim-Kärlich 1+ goals
53%
Mülheim-Kärlich 2+ goals
17%
Mülheim-Kärlich 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Dudenhofen (draw refunded)
85%
Mülheim-Kärlich (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dudenhofen at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.33 · 6 matches

Mülheim-Kärlich away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dudenhofen attack 1.33 + Mülheim-Kärlich defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.08

Mülheim-Kärlich attack 1.17 + Dudenhofen defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Dudenhofen scores more
68%
level
19%
Mülheim-Kärlich scores more
12%

Dudenhofen at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Dudenhofen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dudenhofen vs Mülheim-Kärlich

Dudenhofen beat Mülheim-Kärlich 2-0 in Oberliga - Relegation Round on April 29, 2023.

The match was played at FV-Platz Dudenhofen in Dudenhofen.