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Dudenhofen vs Bitburg — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Dudenhofen
Dudenhofen
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Bitburg
Bitburg
11/25/2023Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 23FV-Platz Dudenhofen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Dudenhofen59%
×Draw19%
Bitburg22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dudenhofen
2.44
Bitburg
1.44

Dudenhofen creates 69% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 19 away

creates per match

Dudenhofen
1.77
Bitburg
1.21

allows per match

Dudenhofen
1.68
Bitburg
3.11

finishing

Dudenhofen+0.00on par
Bitburg+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dudenhofen ↓

Bitburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Dudenhofen or draw
78%
Dudenhofen or Bitburg
81%
Draw or Bitburg
41%

Winning margin

Dudenhofen wins by 2+
38%
Bitburg wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Dudenhofen 1+ goals
91%
Dudenhofen 2+ goals
70%
Dudenhofen 3+ goals
43%
Bitburg 1+ goals
76%
Bitburg 2+ goals
42%
Bitburg 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Dudenhofen (draw refunded)
73%
Bitburg (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dudenhofen at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.68 · 62 matches

Bitburg away — creates 1.21, concedes 3.11 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dudenhofen attack 1.77 + Bitburg defence 3.11 → ÷2 → 2.44

Bitburg attack 1.21 + Dudenhofen defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Dudenhofen scores more
59%
level
19%
Bitburg scores more
22%

Dudenhofen at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Dudenhofen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dudenhofen vs Bitburg

Dudenhofen and Bitburg drew 2-2 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at FV-Platz Dudenhofen in Dudenhofen.