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Dubrava Zagreb vs Zrinski Jurjevac — First NL 2018

Dubrava Zagreb
Dubrava Zagreb
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Zrinski Jurjevac
Zrinski Jurjevac
10/21/2023First NLFirst NL · Round 11Stadion NŠC Stjepan Spajić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Dubrava Zagreb46%
×Draw26%
Zrinski Jurjevac27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dubrava Zagreb
1.45
Zrinski Jurjevac
1.05

Dubrava Zagreb creates 38% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 34 away

creates per match

Dubrava Zagreb
1.37
Zrinski Jurjevac
0.91

allows per match

Dubrava Zagreb
1.19
Zrinski Jurjevac
1.53

finishing

Dubrava Zagreb+0.00on par
Zrinski Jurjevac+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dubrava Zagreb ↓

Zrinski Jurjevac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Dubrava Zagreb or draw
73%
Dubrava Zagreb or Zrinski Jurjevac
74%
Draw or Zrinski Jurjevac
54%

Winning margin

Dubrava Zagreb wins by 2+
23%
Zrinski Jurjevac wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Dubrava Zagreb 1+ goals
77%
Dubrava Zagreb 2+ goals
42%
Dubrava Zagreb 3+ goals
18%
Zrinski Jurjevac 1+ goals
65%
Zrinski Jurjevac 2+ goals
28%
Zrinski Jurjevac 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Dubrava Zagreb (draw refunded)
63%
Zrinski Jurjevac (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dubrava Zagreb at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.19 · 109 matches

Zrinski Jurjevac away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.53 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dubrava Zagreb attack 1.37 + Zrinski Jurjevac defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.45

Zrinski Jurjevac attack 0.91 + Dubrava Zagreb defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dubrava Zagreb scores more
46%
level
26%
Zrinski Jurjevac scores more
27%

Dubrava Zagreb at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Dubrava Zagreb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dubrava Zagreb vs Zrinski Jurjevac

Zrinski Jurjevac beat Dubrava Zagreb 1-0 in First NL on October 21, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion NŠC Stjepan Spajić in Zagreb.