Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Dubrava Zagreb vs Inter Zapresic — First NL 2018

Dubrava Zagreb
Dubrava Zagreb
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Inter Zapresic
Inter Zapresic
9/11/2020First NLFirst NL · Round 4Igralište NK Kustošija

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Dubrava Zagreb40%
×Draw27%
Inter Zapresic33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dubrava Zagreb
1.35
Inter Zapresic
1.19

Dubrava Zagreb creates 13% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 32 away

creates per match

Dubrava Zagreb
1.37
Inter Zapresic
1.19

allows per match

Dubrava Zagreb
1.19
Inter Zapresic
1.34

finishing

Dubrava Zagreb+0.00on par
Inter Zapresic+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dubrava Zagreb ↓

Inter Zapresic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Dubrava Zagreb or draw
67%
Dubrava Zagreb or Inter Zapresic
73%
Draw or Inter Zapresic
60%

Winning margin

Dubrava Zagreb wins by 2+
19%
Inter Zapresic wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Dubrava Zagreb 1+ goals
74%
Dubrava Zagreb 2+ goals
39%
Dubrava Zagreb 3+ goals
15%
Inter Zapresic 1+ goals
70%
Inter Zapresic 2+ goals
33%
Inter Zapresic 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Dubrava Zagreb (draw refunded)
55%
Inter Zapresic (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dubrava Zagreb at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.19 · 109 matches

Inter Zapresic away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.34 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dubrava Zagreb attack 1.37 + Inter Zapresic defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.35

Inter Zapresic attack 1.19 + Dubrava Zagreb defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dubrava Zagreb scores more
40%
level
27%
Inter Zapresic scores more
33%

Dubrava Zagreb at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dubrava Zagreb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dubrava Zagreb vs Inter Zapresic

Inter Zapresic beat Dubrava Zagreb 2-0 in First NL on September 11, 2020.

The match was played at Igralište NK Kustošija in Zagreb.