Dubrava Zagreb 1–0 HNK Cibalia: Result & Stats

Dubrava Zagreb

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

HNK Cibalia

3/8/2025

First NL · Round 21Stadion NŠC Stjepan Spajić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

Dubrava Zagreb45%

×Draw26%

HNK Cibalia29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dubrava ZagrebExpected goals in this matchHNK Cibalia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.11

Dubrava Zagreb

1.45

HNK Cibalia

1.11

Dubrava Zagreb creates 31% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 107 away

1.37

creates per match

1.04

1.19

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Dubrava Zagreb

1.37

HNK Cibalia

1.04

allows per match

Dubrava Zagreb

1.19

HNK Cibalia

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dubrava Zagreb+0.00on par

HNK Cibalia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dubrava Zagreb ↓

HNK Cibalia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Dubrava Zagreb or draw

71%

Dubrava Zagreb or HNK Cibalia

74%

Draw or HNK Cibalia

55%

Winning margin

Dubrava Zagreb wins by 2+

22%

HNK Cibalia wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Dubrava Zagreb 1+ goals

77%

Dubrava Zagreb 2+ goals

42%

Dubrava Zagreb 3+ goals

18%

HNK Cibalia 1+ goals

67%

HNK Cibalia 2+ goals

30%

HNK Cibalia 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Dubrava Zagreb (draw refunded)

61%

HNK Cibalia (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dubrava Zagreb at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.19 · 109 matches

HNK Cibalia away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.52 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dubrava Zagreb attack 1.37 + HNK Cibalia defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.45

HNK Cibalia attack 1.04 + Dubrava Zagreb defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Dubrava Zagreb scores more

45%

level

26%

HNK Cibalia scores more

29%

Dubrava Zagreb at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Dubrava Zagreb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff