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Dubrava Zagreb vs Dinamo Zagreb II — First NL 2018

Dubrava Zagreb
Dubrava Zagreb
CANC
15:00
Dinamo Zagreb II
Dinamo Zagreb II
5/1/2020First NLFirst NL · Round 27ŠRC Grana-Klaka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Dubrava Zagreb47%
×Draw26%
Dinamo Zagreb II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dubrava Zagreb
1.49
Dinamo Zagreb II
1.06

Dubrava Zagreb creates 41% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 54 away

creates per match

Dubrava Zagreb
1.37
Dinamo Zagreb II
0.93

allows per match

Dubrava Zagreb
1.19
Dinamo Zagreb II
1.61

finishing

Dubrava Zagreb+0.00on par
Dinamo Zagreb II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dubrava Zagreb ↓

Dinamo Zagreb II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Dubrava Zagreb or draw
73%
Dubrava Zagreb or Dinamo Zagreb II
74%
Draw or Dinamo Zagreb II
53%

Winning margin

Dubrava Zagreb wins by 2+
23%
Dinamo Zagreb II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Dubrava Zagreb 1+ goals
77%
Dubrava Zagreb 2+ goals
44%
Dubrava Zagreb 3+ goals
19%
Dinamo Zagreb II 1+ goals
65%
Dinamo Zagreb II 2+ goals
29%
Dinamo Zagreb II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Dubrava Zagreb (draw refunded)
64%
Dinamo Zagreb II (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dubrava Zagreb at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.19 · 109 matches

Dinamo Zagreb II away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.61 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dubrava Zagreb attack 1.37 + Dinamo Zagreb II defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.49

Dinamo Zagreb II attack 0.93 + Dubrava Zagreb defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Dubrava Zagreb scores more
47%
level
26%
Dinamo Zagreb II scores more
27%

Dubrava Zagreb at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Dubrava Zagreb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dubrava Zagreb face Dinamo Zagreb II (First NL)

First NL returns with Dubrava Zagreb hosting Dinamo Zagreb II. Match starts May 1, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Dubrava Zagreb host Dinamo Zagreb II at ŠRC Grana-Klaka.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.