Dubrava Zagreb 2–1 Bsk Bijelo Brdo: Result & Stats

Dubrava Zagreb

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Bsk Bijelo Brdo

12/1/2023

First NL · Round 17Stadion NŠC Stjepan Spajić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Dubrava Zagreb45%

×Draw27%

Bsk Bijelo Brdo28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dubrava ZagrebExpected goals in this matchBsk Bijelo Brdo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.07

Dubrava Zagreb

1.42

Bsk Bijelo Brdo

1.07

Dubrava Zagreb creates 33% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 122 away

1.37

creates per match

0.96

1.19

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Dubrava Zagreb

1.37

Bsk Bijelo Brdo

0.96

allows per match

Dubrava Zagreb

1.19

Bsk Bijelo Brdo

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dubrava Zagreb+0.00on par

Bsk Bijelo Brdo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dubrava Zagreb ↓

Bsk Bijelo Brdo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Dubrava Zagreb or draw

72%

Dubrava Zagreb or Bsk Bijelo Brdo

73%

Draw or Bsk Bijelo Brdo

55%

Winning margin

Dubrava Zagreb wins by 2+

22%

Bsk Bijelo Brdo wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Dubrava Zagreb 1+ goals

76%

Dubrava Zagreb 2+ goals

41%

Dubrava Zagreb 3+ goals

17%

Bsk Bijelo Brdo 1+ goals

66%

Bsk Bijelo Brdo 2+ goals

29%

Bsk Bijelo Brdo 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Dubrava Zagreb (draw refunded)

61%

Bsk Bijelo Brdo (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dubrava Zagreb at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.19 · 109 matches

Bsk Bijelo Brdo away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.47 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dubrava Zagreb attack 1.37 + Bsk Bijelo Brdo defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.42

Bsk Bijelo Brdo attack 0.96 + Dubrava Zagreb defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Dubrava Zagreb scores more

45%

level

27%

Bsk Bijelo Brdo scores more

28%

Dubrava Zagreb at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Dubrava Zagreb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff