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Bsk Bijelo Brdo vs Dubrava Zagreb — First NL 2018

Bsk Bijelo Brdo
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Dubrava Zagreb
Dubrava Zagreb
11/9/2024First NLFirst NL · Round 14Stadion BSK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Bsk Bijelo Brdo45%
×Draw28%
Dubrava Zagreb27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bsk Bijelo Brdo
1.33
Dubrava Zagreb
0.97

Bsk Bijelo Brdo creates 37% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 106 away

creates per match

Bsk Bijelo Brdo
1.30
Dubrava Zagreb
0.98

allows per match

Bsk Bijelo Brdo
0.97
Dubrava Zagreb
1.36

finishing

Bsk Bijelo Brdo+0.00on par
Dubrava Zagreb+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bsk Bijelo Brdo ↓

Dubrava Zagreb →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Bsk Bijelo Brdo or draw
73%
Bsk Bijelo Brdo or Dubrava Zagreb
72%
Draw or Dubrava Zagreb
55%

Winning margin

Bsk Bijelo Brdo wins by 2+
21%
Dubrava Zagreb wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Bsk Bijelo Brdo 1+ goals
74%
Bsk Bijelo Brdo 2+ goals
38%
Bsk Bijelo Brdo 3+ goals
15%
Dubrava Zagreb 1+ goals
62%
Dubrava Zagreb 2+ goals
25%
Dubrava Zagreb 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Bsk Bijelo Brdo (draw refunded)
62%
Dubrava Zagreb (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bsk Bijelo Brdo at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.97 · 119 matches

Dubrava Zagreb away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.36 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bsk Bijelo Brdo attack 1.30 + Dubrava Zagreb defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.33

Dubrava Zagreb attack 0.98 + Bsk Bijelo Brdo defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Bsk Bijelo Brdo scores more
45%
level
28%
Dubrava Zagreb scores more
27%

Bsk Bijelo Brdo at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Bsk Bijelo Brdo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bsk Bijelo Brdo vs Dubrava Zagreb

Bsk Bijelo Brdo and Dubrava Zagreb drew 1-1 in First NL on November 9, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion BSK in Bijelo Brdo.