Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Dubočica vs Timočanin — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Dubočica
Dubočica
FT
5 – 2
Timočanin
Timočanin
9/3/2022Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 4SC Orion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Dubočica59%
×Draw22%
Timočanin19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dubočica
1.94
Timočanin
1.01

Dubočica creates 92% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 73 away

creates per match

Dubočica
2.21
Timočanin
1.05

allows per match

Dubočica
0.97
Timočanin
1.67

finishing

Dubočica+0.00on par
Timočanin+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dubočica ↓

Timočanin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Dubočica or draw
81%
Dubočica or Timočanin
78%
Draw or Timočanin
41%

Winning margin

Dubočica wins by 2+
35%
Timočanin wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Dubočica 1+ goals
86%
Dubočica 2+ goals
58%
Dubočica 3+ goals
30%
Timočanin 1+ goals
64%
Timočanin 2+ goals
27%
Timočanin 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Dubočica (draw refunded)
75%
Timočanin (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dubočica at home — creates 2.21, concedes 0.97 · 39 matches

Timočanin away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.67 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dubočica attack 2.21 + Timočanin defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.94

Timočanin attack 1.05 + Dubočica defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Dubočica scores more
59%
level
22%
Timočanin scores more
19%

Dubočica at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Dubočica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Dubočica 5–2 Timočanin

Dubočica beat Timočanin 5-2 in Srpska Liga - East on September 3, 2022.

The match was played at SC Orion in Mrštane.