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Dubočica vs Semendrija 1924 — Prva Liga 2018

Dubočica
Dubočica
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Semendrija 1924
Semendrija 1924
11/21/2023Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 9Gradski stadion Dubočica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Dubočica41%
×Draw28%
Semendrija 192431%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dubočica
1.28
Semendrija 1924
1.07

Dubočica creates 20% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 71 away

creates per match

Dubočica
1.18
Semendrija 1924
0.96

allows per match

Dubočica
1.19
Semendrija 1924
1.39

finishing

Dubočica+0.00on par
Semendrija 1924+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dubočica ↓

Semendrija 1924 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Dubočica or draw
69%
Dubočica or Semendrija 1924
72%
Draw or Semendrija 1924
59%

Winning margin

Dubočica wins by 2+
18%
Semendrija 1924 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Dubočica 1+ goals
72%
Dubočica 2+ goals
37%
Dubočica 3+ goals
14%
Semendrija 1924 1+ goals
66%
Semendrija 1924 2+ goals
29%
Semendrija 1924 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Dubočica (draw refunded)
57%
Semendrija 1924 (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dubočica at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.19 · 74 matches

Semendrija 1924 away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.39 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dubočica attack 1.18 + Semendrija 1924 defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.28

Semendrija 1924 attack 0.96 + Dubočica defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Dubočica scores more
41%
level
28%
Semendrija 1924 scores more
31%

Dubočica at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Dubočica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Prva Liga: Dubočica 2–1 Semendrija 1924

Dubočica beat Semendrija 1924 2-1 in Prva Liga on November 21, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski stadion Dubočica in Leskovac.