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Dubočica vs Radnički Novi Beograd — Prva Liga 2018

Dubočica
Dubočica
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Radnički Novi Beograd
Radnički Novi Beograd
12/6/2023Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 16Gradski stadion Dubočica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Dubočica51%
×Draw25%
Radnički Novi Beograd23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dubočica
1.57
Radnički Novi Beograd
0.97

Dubočica creates 62% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 38 away

creates per match

Dubočica
1.18
Radnički Novi Beograd
0.76

allows per match

Dubočica
1.19
Radnički Novi Beograd
1.97

finishing

Dubočica+0.00on par
Radnički Novi Beograd+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dubočica ↓

Radnički Novi Beograd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Dubočica or draw
77%
Dubočica or Radnički Novi Beograd
75%
Draw or Radnički Novi Beograd
49%

Winning margin

Dubočica wins by 2+
27%
Radnički Novi Beograd wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Dubočica 1+ goals
79%
Dubočica 2+ goals
46%
Dubočica 3+ goals
21%
Radnički Novi Beograd 1+ goals
62%
Radnički Novi Beograd 2+ goals
25%
Radnički Novi Beograd 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Dubočica (draw refunded)
69%
Radnički Novi Beograd (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dubočica at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.19 · 74 matches

Radnički Novi Beograd away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.97 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dubočica attack 1.18 + Radnički Novi Beograd defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.57

Radnički Novi Beograd attack 0.76 + Dubočica defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Dubočica scores more
51%
level
25%
Radnički Novi Beograd scores more
23%

Dubočica at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Dubočica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Prva Liga: Dubočica 1–1 Radnički Novi Beograd

Dubočica and Radnički Novi Beograd drew 1-1 in Prva Liga on December 6, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski stadion Dubočica in Leskovac.