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Dubočica vs Mladost Novi Sad — Prva Liga 2018

Dubočica
Dubočica
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Mladost Novi Sad
Mladost Novi Sad
5/2/2024Prva LigaPrva Liga · Relegation Round - 3Gradski stadion Dubočica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Dubočica32%
×Draw30%
Mladost Novi Sad37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dubočica
0.98
Mladost Novi Sad
1.08

Mladost Novi Sad creates 10% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 55 away

creates per match

Dubočica
1.18
Mladost Novi Sad
0.98

allows per match

Dubočica
1.19
Mladost Novi Sad
0.78

finishing

Dubočica+0.00on par
Mladost Novi Sad+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dubočica ↓

Mladost Novi Sad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Dubočica or draw
63%
Dubočica or Mladost Novi Sad
70%
Draw or Mladost Novi Sad
68%

Winning margin

Dubočica wins by 2+
12%
Mladost Novi Sad wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Dubočica 1+ goals
62%
Dubočica 2+ goals
26%
Dubočica 3+ goals
8%
Mladost Novi Sad 1+ goals
66%
Mladost Novi Sad 2+ goals
29%
Mladost Novi Sad 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Dubočica (draw refunded)
46%
Mladost Novi Sad (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dubočica at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.19 · 74 matches

Mladost Novi Sad away — creates 0.98, concedes 0.78 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dubočica attack 1.18 + Mladost Novi Sad defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.98

Mladost Novi Sad attack 0.98 + Dubočica defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Dubočica scores more
32%
level
30%
Mladost Novi Sad scores more
37%

Mladost Novi Sad at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Mladost Novi Sad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dubočica vs Mladost Novi Sad

Mladost Novi Sad beat Dubočica 1-0 in Prva Liga on May 2, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski stadion Dubočica in Leskovac.