Dubočica 1–1 Kabel Novi Sad: Result & Stats

Dubočica

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Kabel Novi Sad

E. Pavlov 45'

V. Boskan 90'

4/27/2026

Prva Liga · Relegation Group - 33

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Dubočica42%

×Draw28%

Kabel Novi Sad30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DubočicaExpected goals in this matchKabel Novi Sad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.04

Dubočica

1.29

Kabel Novi Sad

1.04

Dubočica creates 24% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 71 away

1.18

creates per match

0.90

1.19

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Dubočica

1.18

Kabel Novi Sad

0.90

allows per match

Dubočica

1.19

Kabel Novi Sad

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dubočica+0.00on par

Kabel Novi Sad+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dubočica ↓

Kabel Novi Sad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Dubočica or draw

70%

Dubočica or Kabel Novi Sad

72%

Draw or Kabel Novi Sad

58%

Winning margin

Dubočica wins by 2+

19%

Kabel Novi Sad wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Dubočica 1+ goals

72%

Dubočica 2+ goals

37%

Dubočica 3+ goals

14%

Kabel Novi Sad 1+ goals

65%

Kabel Novi Sad 2+ goals

28%

Kabel Novi Sad 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Dubočica (draw refunded)

58%

Kabel Novi Sad (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dubočica at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.19 · 74 matches

Kabel Novi Sad away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.41 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dubočica attack 1.18 + Kabel Novi Sad defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.29

Kabel Novi Sad attack 0.90 + Dubočica defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Dubočica scores more

42%

level

28%

Kabel Novi Sad scores more

30%

Dubočica at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Dubočica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

I. Dervisi← U. Paunovic

45'

E. Pavlov

46'

V. Trifunovic← V. Zivojinovic

60'

I. Stojsic←

67'

I. Stojsic

67'

I. Dembele← E. Pavlov

67'

S. Lukovic← V. Jocic

71'

D. Janjic← V. Apostolovski

71'

S. Marjanovic← N. Ninkovic

79'

P. Djordjevic

82'

S. Kocic← B. Mladenovic

87'

S. Lukovic

90+3'

A. Ratkovic← Denilson

90'

V. Boskan

Dubočica

Kabel

22

Nikolic

7

▼

13

14

15

16

▼

Ninkovic

17

Vidakovic

18

⚽

Boskan

21

▼

28

29

27

3

▼

4

7

8

9

▼

Zivojinov

14

▼

Jocic

15

Jovanovic

33

▼

Mladenovi

41

Seedorf

45

⚽

▼

Pavlov

46'▲V. Trifunovic←▼V. Zivojinovic

67'▲I. Dembele←▼E. Pavlov

67'▲S. Lukovic←▼V. Jocic

82'▲S. Kocic←▼B. Mladenovic

90+3'▲A. Ratkovic←▼Denilson

Dubočica substitutes

32Milojevic5Stojanovic6Bosnjak11Zivkovic16Dembele20Teixeira21Trifunovic22Lukovic25Ratkovic42Bebek73Kocic

Manager: Dusan Bajic

14'▲I. Dervisi←▼U. Paunovic

60'▲I. Stojsic←▼—

71'▲D. Janjic←▼V. Apostolovski

71'▲S. Marjanovic←▼N. Ninkovic

Kabel Novi Sad substitutes

12Perin2Bobos4Stojsic5Pavic6Micunovic11Janjic19Dervisi24Kuzmin26Marjanovic

Prva Liga: Dubočica 1–1 Kabel Novi Sad

Dubočica and Kabel Novi Sad drew 1-1 in Prva Liga on April 27, 2026.

Goals: E. Pavlov (45'), V. Boskan (90').

Dubočica vs Kabel Novi Sad — Prva Liga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Prva Liga: Dubočica 1–1 Kabel Novi Sad