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Dubočica vs Jedinstvo Ub — Prva Liga 2018

Dubočica
Dubočica
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Jedinstvo Ub
Jedinstvo Ub
11/5/2023Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 15Gradski stadion Dubočica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Dubočica40%
×Draw28%
Jedinstvo Ub33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dubočica
1.27
Jedinstvo Ub
1.12

Dubočica creates 13% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 55 away

creates per match

Dubočica
1.18
Jedinstvo Ub
1.05

allows per match

Dubočica
1.19
Jedinstvo Ub
1.35

finishing

Dubočica+0.00on par
Jedinstvo Ub+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dubočica ↓

Jedinstvo Ub →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Dubočica or draw
67%
Dubočica or Jedinstvo Ub
72%
Draw or Jedinstvo Ub
60%

Winning margin

Dubočica wins by 2+
18%
Jedinstvo Ub wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Dubočica 1+ goals
72%
Dubočica 2+ goals
36%
Dubočica 3+ goals
14%
Jedinstvo Ub 1+ goals
67%
Jedinstvo Ub 2+ goals
31%
Jedinstvo Ub 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Dubočica (draw refunded)
55%
Jedinstvo Ub (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dubočica at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.19 · 74 matches

Jedinstvo Ub away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.35 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dubočica attack 1.18 + Jedinstvo Ub defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.27

Jedinstvo Ub attack 1.05 + Dubočica defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dubočica scores more
40%
level
28%
Jedinstvo Ub scores more
33%

Dubočica at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dubočica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Prva Liga: Dubočica 1–0 Jedinstvo Ub

Dubočica beat Jedinstvo Ub 1-0 in Prva Liga on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski stadion Dubočica in Leskovac.