Dubočica 2–1 Grafičar: Result & Stats | Prva Liga

Dubočica

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Grafičar

12/2/2023

Prva Liga · Round 19Gradski stadion Dubočica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Dubočica39%

×Draw27%

Grafičar34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DubočicaExpected goals in this matchGrafičar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.17

Dubočica

1.28

Grafičar

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 74 home / 125 away

1.18

creates per match

1.14

1.19

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Dubočica

1.18

Grafičar

1.14

allows per match

Dubočica

1.19

Grafičar

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dubočica+0.00on par

Grafičar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dubočica ↓

Grafičar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Dubočica or draw

66%

Dubočica or Grafičar

73%

Draw or Grafičar

61%

Winning margin

Dubočica wins by 2+

17%

Grafičar wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Dubočica 1+ goals

72%

Dubočica 2+ goals

37%

Dubočica 3+ goals

14%

Grafičar 1+ goals

69%

Grafičar 2+ goals

33%

Grafičar 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Dubočica (draw refunded)

54%

Grafičar (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dubočica at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.19 · 74 matches

Grafičar away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.38 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dubočica attack 1.18 + Grafičar defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.28

Grafičar attack 1.14 + Dubočica defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Dubočica scores more

39%

level

27%

Grafičar scores more

34%

Dubočica at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Dubočica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff