Dubnica 1–1 Žilina II: Result & Stats | 2. liga

Dubnica

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Žilina II

3/13/2021

2. liga · Round 20Mestský futbalový štadión Dubnica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Dubnica46%

×Draw24%

Žilina II30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DubnicaExpected goals in this matchŽilina II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.29

Dubnica

1.66

Žilina II

1.29

Dubnica creates 29% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 98 away

1.44

creates per match

1.30

1.27

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Dubnica

1.44

Žilina II

1.30

allows per match

Dubnica

1.27

Žilina II

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dubnica+0.00on par

Žilina II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dubnica ↓

Žilina II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Dubnica or draw

70%

Dubnica or Žilina II

76%

Draw or Žilina II

54%

Winning margin

Dubnica wins by 2+

24%

Žilina II wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Dubnica 1+ goals

81%

Dubnica 2+ goals

49%

Dubnica 3+ goals

23%

Žilina II 1+ goals

72%

Žilina II 2+ goals

37%

Žilina II 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Dubnica (draw refunded)

61%

Žilina II (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dubnica at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.27 · 55 matches

Žilina II away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.87 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dubnica attack 1.44 + Žilina II defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.66

Žilina II attack 1.30 + Dubnica defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dubnica scores more

46%

level

24%

Žilina II scores more

30%

Dubnica at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Dubnica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff