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Dubnica vs Nové Mesto nad Váhom — 3. liga - West 2020

Dubnica
Dubnica
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Nové Mesto nad Váhom
Nové Mesto nad Váhom
4/14/20243. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 22Mestský futbalový štadión Dubnica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dubnica30%
×Draw23%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dubnica
1.38
Nové Mesto nad Váhom
1.80

Nové Mesto nad Váhom creates 30% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 54 away

creates per match

Dubnica
1.00
Nové Mesto nad Váhom
1.07

allows per match

Dubnica
2.53
Nové Mesto nad Váhom
1.76

finishing

Dubnica+0.00on par
Nové Mesto nad Váhom+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dubnica ↓

Nové Mesto nad Váhom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Dubnica or draw
53%
Dubnica or Nové Mesto nad Váhom
77%
Draw or Nové Mesto nad Váhom
70%

Winning margin

Dubnica wins by 2+
13%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Dubnica 1+ goals
75%
Dubnica 2+ goals
40%
Dubnica 3+ goals
16%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom 1+ goals
83%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom 2+ goals
54%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Dubnica (draw refunded)
38%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dubnica at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.53 · 15 matches

Nové Mesto nad Váhom away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.76 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dubnica attack 1.00 + Nové Mesto nad Váhom defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.38

Nové Mesto nad Váhom attack 1.07 + Dubnica defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Dubnica scores more
30%
level
23%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom scores more
47%

Nové Mesto nad Váhom at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Nové Mesto nad Váhom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - West: Dubnica 1–3 Nové Mesto nad Váhom

Nové Mesto nad Váhom beat Dubnica 3-1 in 3. liga - West on April 14, 2024.

The match was played at Mestský futbalový štadión Dubnica in Dubnica nad Váhom.