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Dubai City vs Ittifaq — Division 1 2018

Dubai City
Dubai City
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ittifaq
Ittifaq
11/8/2025Division 1Division 1 · Round 7Emirates Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Dubai City33%
×Draw23%
Ittifaq44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dubai City
1.46
Ittifaq
1.71

Ittifaq creates 17% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 14 away

creates per match

Dubai City
0.98
Ittifaq
1.43

allows per match

Dubai City
1.98
Ittifaq
1.93

finishing

Dubai City+0.00on par
Ittifaq+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dubai City ↓

Ittifaq →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Dubai City or draw
56%
Dubai City or Ittifaq
77%
Draw or Ittifaq
67%

Winning margin

Dubai City wins by 2+
15%
Ittifaq wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Dubai City 1+ goals
77%
Dubai City 2+ goals
43%
Dubai City 3+ goals
18%
Ittifaq 1+ goals
82%
Ittifaq 2+ goals
51%
Ittifaq 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Dubai City (draw refunded)
43%
Ittifaq (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dubai City at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.98 · 60 matches

Ittifaq away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dubai City attack 0.98 + Ittifaq defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.46

Ittifaq attack 1.43 + Dubai City defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Dubai City scores more
33%
level
23%
Ittifaq scores more
44%

Ittifaq at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ittifaq will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dubai City vs Ittifaq

Dubai City beat Ittifaq 3-0 in Division 1 on November 8, 2025.

The match was played at Emirates Club Stadium in Rās al-Khaymah (Ras al-Khaimah).