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Dubai City vs Gulf Heroes — Division 1 2018

Dubai City
Dubai City
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Gulf Heroes
Gulf Heroes
4/15/2024Division 1Division 1 · Round 27Al-Dhaid Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Dubai City34%
×Draw23%
Gulf Heroes43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dubai City
1.52
Gulf Heroes
1.75

Gulf Heroes creates 15% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 59 away

creates per match

Dubai City
0.98
Gulf Heroes
1.53

allows per match

Dubai City
1.98
Gulf Heroes
2.07

finishing

Dubai City+0.00on par
Gulf Heroes+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dubai City ↓

Gulf Heroes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Dubai City or draw
57%
Dubai City or Gulf Heroes
77%
Draw or Gulf Heroes
66%

Winning margin

Dubai City wins by 2+
16%
Gulf Heroes wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Dubai City 1+ goals
78%
Dubai City 2+ goals
45%
Dubai City 3+ goals
20%
Gulf Heroes 1+ goals
83%
Gulf Heroes 2+ goals
52%
Gulf Heroes 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Dubai City (draw refunded)
44%
Gulf Heroes (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dubai City at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.98 · 60 matches

Gulf Heroes away — creates 1.53, concedes 2.07 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dubai City attack 0.98 + Gulf Heroes defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.52

Gulf Heroes attack 1.53 + Dubai City defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Dubai City scores more
34%
level
23%
Gulf Heroes scores more
43%

Gulf Heroes at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Gulf Heroes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Dubai City 2–4 Gulf Heroes

Gulf Heroes beat Dubai City 4-2 in Division 1 on April 15, 2024.

The match was played at Al-Dhaid Stadium in Dhaid.